The trading environment for gold has been quite dynamic over the past daysLast Thursday saw international gold prices rebound significantly, closing positively above the 100-day moving average, suggesting that bullish sentiments are still in playHowever, analysts urge a cautious approach with a focus on the potential to break through the 60-day moving average resistanceOnly a sustained move above $2725 can trigger more aggressive bullish activity; otherwise, a range-bound adjustment is anticipated, where prices may retreat temporarily.

To delve into specific price movements, gold started the day at $2615.89 per ounce, dipping to a low of $2615.59 before experiencing a solid rallyBy 9:30 AM, trading fluctuated around the $2627 mark, persisting until the U.Ssession commencedEven though prices dipped earlier in response to economic data, the drop was shallow and the bulls regained control by pushing prices back

They reached a peak of $2639.05 by 11:30 PMDespite facing resistance, the closing price remained resilient at $2633.55, marking a daily swing of $23.46 and a rise of $17.66, equating to an overall increase of 0.68%.

Several factors influenced these movementsA retreat in both the U.Sdollar index and treasury yields provided critical support for gold pricesAdditionally, the buying interest from technical support levels combined with demand during this festive season solidified the market's strength after the initial corrections.

As we look towards Friday's trading, gold opened with slight upward momentumThe buying pressure from the previous day, coupled with short-term moving averages (5-10 days) now acting as support, facilitated a bullish outlookMoreover, the dollar index struggled to gain ground during the early trades, which also provided a supportive backdrop for gold prices

However, analysts caution that while the immediate future showcases a likely retracement, the overarching trend remains bullish, suggesting that cautious optimism prevails.

The backdrop of U.Seconomic indicators, notably the 10-year treasury yields, shows a recent pullback, indicating potential resistance at higher levelsExpectations suggest that while the broader trend has yet to show definitive signs of weakness, there will be a dampening effect on bearish pressure, allowing gold prices to maintain their position above the crucial 100-day moving averageThe focus remains on the strength of bullish traders in this scenario.

Currently, with no major economic data or events expected today, traders can anticipate a continuation of the established patterns observed throughout the weekThe overall sentiment is likely to uphold the recent oscillating trends, depicting a formation aligning with bottom-reversal patterns ahead of expected consolidations in the coming weeks.

From a fundamental perspective, as the year approaches its closing, only a few trading days remain, raising expectations that 2024 could yield significant profits, ideally projected at above 27% based on current trajectories

However, despite earlier strong performances, the gold market's momentum has begun to wane as the dollar has increasingly fortified its position, especially since early November.

It’s crucial to mention that even though the Federal Reserve has taken steps to lower interest rates aggressively in September, November, and December, the persistent inflation concern means that a reduction in rate cuts might not be seen until 2025. This scenario positions gold in a flux, where sustained high-level fluctuations could lead to a potential downturn despite the ongoing bullish sentiment.

At present, elevated geopolitical tensions and increased demand tied to the approaching holiday season, notably the lunar new year, add complexity to the marketThe Federal Reserve has not concluded its rate-cutting cycle, and further increases in interest rates are not imminent; thus, gold remains on a bullish trajectory albeit with reduced momentum, not enough, however, to lean towards bearish sentiments.

As we forecast 2025, the continuous buying by central banks, compounded by escalated geopolitical tensions, aligns well with the Fed’s dovish stance, poised to set the foundation for yet another record-breaking year

alefox

Even without unexpected geopolitical disturbances, the anticipated pressures from ongoing concerns may see gold prices target around $2800 per ounce.

Looking ahead, analysts anticipate that 2025 will offer no bearish influences, positioning gold for either continuous high-range fluctuations or a renewed upward trajectory toward the $3000 threshold.

On a technical level, monthly charts reflect that gold prices saw a robust recovery in November, despite not breaching the previous May moving average supportHowever, recent patterns suggest a weaker oscillation, indicative of a potential bearish reversal, necessitating patience until a close above $2750 occurs, after which a resumption of bullish moves could be advisable.

Weekly analyses show that gold has maintained a symmetrical triangle pattern, underscoring the encumbrance from moving averagesShort-term projections indicate a potential downturn if the price breaches the 30-week moving average support, while a robust close above the 10-week moving average can spark further bullish advances.

Daily price movements illustrate that the week has upheld resilience above the 100-day moving average and seems poised to challenge the middle range and 60-day moving average soon