In the aftermath of the holiday season, the U.Sstock market is experiencing a rather turbulent trading period, reflecting a mix of optimism and concerns over labor market dynamicsRecent data regarding initial unemployment claims has left analysts dividedDespite a slight decline in claims, the broader implications for the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook remain unclearThis has resulted in a minor setback for the S&P 500 index, which floated around the 6037 mark, marking a subtle dropMeanwhile, the Nasdaq 100 index dipped by 0.1%. Interestingly, the only major index that showed an upward trend was the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which achieved a five-day winning streak.
Research compiled by Bespoke Investment Group highlights a noteworthy trend, indicating that following the S&P 500's best Christmas Eve performance since 1974, the stock market has struggled to gain momentum
As European markets closed, trading volume on U.Sexchanges was significantly lower than the monthly average, showcasing a reluctance to engage in aggressive trading post-holiday.
On the closing bell, various indices showed differing results: the Dow Jones closed higher by 28.77 points, or 0.07%, finishing at 43,325.80 points; conversely, the S&P 500 fell by 2.45 points, a 0.04% decline, landing at 6037.59 points; while the Nasdaq Composite dropped by 10.77 points, equating to a 0.05% decrease, closing at 20,020.36 pointsNotably, shares of Apple (AAPL.US) rose by 0.3%, setting a new record with a market capitalization of approximately $3.92 trillionConversely, Tesla saw a decline of 1.7%, while Honda experienced a surge of 4%. The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index managed to gain 0.4%.
Turning to Europe, major European stock markets remained closedHowever, within the Asia-Pacific region, the Nikkei 225 index posted a promising increase of 1.12%, while South Korea’s KOSPI index experienced a dip of 0.60%.
In the cryptocurrency arena, Bitcoin has taken a downturn of 3%, currently valued at approximately $95,456.95. Following suit, Ethereum fell by 4.1%, now priced at $3,324.56.
Looking at precious metals, the COMEX gold futures saw a rise of 0.71%, closing at $2,654.30 per ounce
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Spot gold also experienced an uptick, finishing at $2,634.39 per ounce, up by 0.67% during trading.
On the oil front, international crude futures edged down slightlyFebruary WTI crude oil futures fell by $0.48 to $69.62 per barrel, reflecting a decline of 0.68%, while Brent crude for February slipped by $0.32, closing at $73.26 per barrel, a decline of 0.43%.
During this trading period, the London Metal Exchange was shut down, and in foreign exchange markets, the dollar index remained stable at 108.09. Movements among other currencies were mixed: the euro gained 0.15% against the dollar, trading at 1.0423, while the British pound dropped by 0.24% to 1.2527, and the Australian dollar fell by 0.29% to 0.6221. Conversely, the U.Sdollar rose by 0.5% against the Japanese yen, reaching 158.01, whereas it fell by 0.19% against the Swiss franc, settling at 0.8988.
From a macroeconomic perspective, initial unemployment claims in the U.S
have decreased, which temporarily alleviates fears of a significant wave of layoffsThe Labor Department reported that for the week ending December 21, there were 219,000 new applications for unemployment benefits, down from 220,000 the previous week, and below market expectations of 225,000. The current unemployment rate stands at 4.2%, which despite being above average historical rates, remains relatively stableHowever, as 2024 progresses, there are signals of softening in the labor market, evidenced by a decrease in job openings per job seeker and a marked decline in new job additions across sectors.
In retail, initial reports indicate a 3.8% increase in holiday spending, particularly buoyed by strong e-commerce demand for clothingAccording to a preliminary report from Mastercard, U.Sretail sales, excluding automobiles, experienced this growth year-on-year from November 1 to December 24. Significantly, the last five days of the holiday season represented 10% of all holiday consumer spending
This increase in retail sales, compared to a 3.1% uptick last year, has surpassed projections of a 3.2% rise made by Mastercard in SeptemberMajor players like Walmart, Target, and Amazon amplified promotional activities to attract consumers, successfully fostering a vibrant shopping atmosphere during the holiday rush.
In terms of individual stocks, discussions around OpenAI engaging in a transition to a for-profit model are gaining tractionReports suggest that CEO Sam Altman is facing significant hurdles in this process, particularly due to Microsoft's profound influence, having committed over $13 billion to OpenAINegotiations are currently focusing on four main areas: Microsoft's equity stake in the profit-oriented entity, its role as OpenAI’s exclusive cloud service provider, the duration of Microsoft's rights to utilize OpenAI’s intellectual property, and the revenue-sharing from OpenAI
The urgency to finalize these negotiations is palpable, as existing investors have the option to reclaim their funds along with accrued interest if the transition isn’t completed in the next two years.
Moreover, analysts from Wedbush have posited that Apple is on the verge of entering a prosperous growth phase, potentially reaching a market cap of $4 trillion by 2025. They argue that an AI-driven upgrade cycle for the iPhone, coupled with the nascent development of the “Apple Intelligence” strategy, could significantly enhance consumer growth dynamics in the upcoming yearsThey estimate that hundreds of applications developed under this initiative could generate billions in annual revenue.
Lastly, Microstrategy is looking to increase its stock issuance to bolster its Bitcoin investment strategyThe company aims to raise more capital via its Class A common and preferred stocks to further partake in Bitcoin purchases